The 2024 elections will determine control of the United States Senate during the last two years of President Joe Biden’s first term. Currently, Democrats hold a narrow majority with 50 seats plus the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris. Republicans need to flip only one seat to take back the majority they lost in 2020. However, Democrats are defending far more competitive seats in 2024, giving Republicans plenty of pickup opportunities.
Here is an overview of the Senate races expected to be most consequential in determining whether Republicans can reclaim control of the upper chamber in 2024:
Arizona
Democrat Mark Kelly is running for a full six-year term after winning a 2020 special election to finish the late John McCain’s term. Kelly is a former astronaut and the husband of former Rep. Gabby Giffords. Arizona has become one of the most fiercely contested battleground states, and Kelly is expected to face a tough challenge in his bid for a full term. The GOP primary is shaping up as a contest between Attorney General Mark Brnovich and solar power executive Jim Lamon, both of whom are campaigning as loyalists to former President Donald Trump.
Nevada
Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is running for a second term. She won by just 2.4 points in 2016 but may be vulnerable in a midterm environment that typically favors the party out of power. Her most likely GOP challenger is former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who lost a close 2018 race for governor. Redistricting has made Nevada’s House map more favorable for Republicans, which could have a trickle-down effect in the Senate contest.
Georgia
Freshman Democrat Raphael Warnock won one of Georgia’s two Senate runoffs in January 2021, helping give Democrats control of the chamber. He now has to run again in 2024 for a full six-year term. Georgia has cemented itself as a swing state, and this race is expected to be highly competitive. Republicans have a crowded primary field, including former NFL star Herschel Walker, who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump. Other Republicans in the mix include Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, Navy veteran and former bank executive Latham Saddler, and construction company owner Kelvin King.
New Hampshire
Democrat Maggie Hassan is a first-term senator facing her first reelection bid after unseating Republican Kelly Ayotte in 2016. The GOP field to challenge Hassan is still developing but includes state Senate President Chuck Morse, former Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith, and retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc. Governor Chris Sununu passed on a Senate bid despite heavy recruitment efforts, complicating Republican efforts to flip this swing state seat.
Colorado
Democratic Senator Michael Bennet has won tough races before, but he could face another competitive challenger in 2024 as he seeks a third term. His Republican opponents may include businessman Eli Bremer or state Rep. Ron Hanks, who challenged the 2020 election results. Democrats have performed well in Colorado statewide races lately, but this contest is likely to tighten given President Biden’s struggling approval ratings.
Ohio
Republican Senator Rob Portman is retiring after two terms, creating an open seat contest in this traditional battleground state. The Republican field includes author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance, former state GOP chair Jane Timken, and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is Congressman Tim Ryan in a state that has trended Republican at the federal level lately. Both parties see this as a prime pickup opportunity that could decide the Senate majority.
North Carolina
The open North Carolina Senate seat created by retiring GOP Senator Richard Burr is expected to host one of the most expensive and intense Senate contests of the 2024 cycle. The Republican side has already attracted a crowded field, including former Governor Pat McCrory, Congressman Ted Budd, and former Congressman Mark Walker. On the Democratic side, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is the frontrunner. This race may provide clues about Trump’s continued influence, as he has already endorsed Budd.
Pennsylvania
Democratic Senator Bob Casey is a two-term incumbent who won by 13 points in 2018. But Pennsylvania has emerged as one of the most hotly contested swing states, fueling GOP hopes of challenging Casey in an open-seat bid after Governor Tom Wolf is term limited. The Republican field includes several members of the U.S. House, including Guy Reschenthaler and Scott Perry, along with wealthy business figures Jeff Bartos and Carla Sands. Democrats have held this seat since 1962, but Republicans see a major opportunity.
Wisconsin
Democrat Tammy Baldwin is a two-term incumbent seeking reelection in this perennial swing state that President Biden narrowly carried in 2020. Republicans hope Senator Ron Johnson will seek a third term to challenge Baldwin, though he has sent mixed signals about his intentions. Other Republicans waiting in the wings include former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch, businessman and former Marine Kevin Nicholson, and state Rep. Tyler August. The outcome may depend on whether Johnson runs again.
Missouri
Republican Roy Blunt’s retirement creates an open seat that Democrats will try to flip, even though Missouri has trended Republican in recent federal elections. The potential GOP field includes Attorney General Eric Schmitt, Congressmen Billy Long and Jason Smith, and former Governor Eric Greitens. The Democratic frontrunner appears to be Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, though others like Trudy Busch Valentine may still run.
Democrats will be almost entirely on defense in the 2024 Senate map, with the GOP enjoying many prime pickup opportunities as they seek to regain the majority. Races like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and New Hampshire are likely to be highly competitive, while states like Ohio and Pennsylvania provide further Republican targets. Overall, the 2024 Senate cycle could be the most expensive and hard-fought political midterm election in modern history given the stakes of controlling Congress during the latter half of Biden’s term.
For more information on Senate races and the 2024 election, check out the following authoritative resources:
- United States Senate elections, 2024 on Wikipedia
- Election Information on USA.gov
- Cook Political Report Senate Race Ratings
- RealClearPolitics Latest Senate Polls
- FiveThirtyEight 2022 Senate Forecast